Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 10.614659 12.176996 13.863786 15.817057 18.013250 20.402832 23.196168
2025-05-18 8.273026 10.372375 12.818741 15.866839 19.548615 23.837059 29.194194
2025-05-25 7.129334 9.463102 12.318073 16.042740 20.745930 26.457044 33.883207
2025-06-01 6.171094 8.626617 11.765199 16.031659 21.634659 28.691189 38.191920
2025-06-08 5.386957 7.883992 11.201309 15.875442 22.225879 30.478025 41.922942
2025-06-15 4.848915 7.398245 10.905197 16.007890 23.153024 32.697820 46.284221
2025-06-22 4.506544 7.139356 10.876449 16.472224 24.520271 35.535900 51.577101
2025-06-29 4.030063 6.628603 10.433662 16.294749 24.948384 37.076969 55.133139
2025-07-06 3.462261 5.917238 9.627687 15.508812 24.423661 37.217377 56.685840
2025-07-13 3.257375 5.749875 9.618434 15.898133 25.627199 39.864368 61.922694
2025-07-20 3.054621 5.563633 9.559040 16.194963 26.692655 42.342274 67.005863
2025-07-27 2.788802 5.245089 9.260237 16.085731 27.113006 43.861291 70.710357
2025-08-03 2.517525 4.896138 8.891523 15.848561 27.334297 45.114764 74.118374
2025-08-10 2.321668 4.660990 8.692655 15.873127 27.970026 47.031842 78.630655
2025-08-17 2.173830 4.496809 8.598027 16.057953 28.864145 49.377651 83.891825
2025-08-24 2.008656 4.283317 8.398345 16.043789 29.417855 51.194609 88.379100
2025-08-31 1.839244 4.044057 8.131579 15.888523 29.714049 52.593897 92.235390
2025-09-07 1.725785 3.903328 8.032135 16.020699 30.503793 54.826881 97.527661
2025-09-14 1.664577 3.862201 8.114303 16.485497 31.894911 58.114330 104.685064
2025-09-21 1.529507 3.654061 7.860858 16.307848 32.126742 59.442775 108.602738
2025-09-28 1.338580 3.306540 7.307079 15.521359 31.205832 58.741914 109.031657
2025-10-05 1.290557 3.267057 7.362965 15.910956 32.463838 61.874207 116.158673
2025-10-12 1.235980 3.207365 7.372533 16.208002 33.559795 64.759241 122.955052